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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-29T01:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36076/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the south in SOHO LASCO imagery faintly in white light imagery and southeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery; seems to be associated with a relatively minor eruption with southern deflection just west of AR 3938 (N20W01) near central meridian but with lower confidence potentially associated with AR 3939 (S18E33) as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, and best in 304 imagery.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T15:44Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T23:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/0600 UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 821
Longitude (deg): E04
Latitude (deg): S32
Half-angular width (deg): 28

Notes:

Lead Time: 42.23 hour(s)
Difference: -7.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-12-29T21:30Z

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